Argentina risk index tops 600 points on bond drop

Argentina's country risk index calculated by JP Morgan rose 31 basis points, or 5.4%, on Friday, September 25, 2026, closing at 609 points. The move marked the first time the indicator crossed the 600 threshold since April 7, when it reached 610. Over the week, the gauge gained 85 units, and it accumulated a rise of 97 points, or 19%, so far in September.

The increase followed widespread declines across sovereign debt. According to Portfolio Personal Inversiones, Argentine Global bonds fell between 1.4% and 4.6% on Friday, led by long-duration paper. In the broader emerging-market segment, the EMB ETF dropped 1.3% during the week. Grupo IEB noted that local fixed income experienced one of its worst weeks of the year amid an unfavorable international backdrop.

External pressures included Brent crude rising to near $107 per barrel and the 10-year US Treasury yield advancing to 5.22%, its highest level in 19 years, while the market priced in a near 70% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, according to GMA Capital. Domestically, GMA Capital highlighted weaker economic activity data and higher poverty figures as factors feeding investor doubts about Javier Milei's reelection chances next year.

The indicator had reached a administration low of 402 basis points in mid-July after credit rating agencies upgraded Argentina's sovereign debt. Economists at FMyA noted that the recent rise began two months ago, pointing to lower reserve accumulation, closed foreign debt markets, and political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 electoral calendar as key pressures on debt sustainability.