Bradesco BBI cuts Cogna to neutral and lowers target to R$ 3.10

Bradesco BBI downgraded shares of Cogna Educação from buy to neutral on September 24, 2026. The bank also reduced its year-end 2027 price target from R$ 3.80 to R$ 3.10, which represents an upside potential of 35% compared to the previous closing price.

Analysts Marcio Osako and Henrique Colla noted that the downgrade reflects weaker operating dynamics, lower relative attractiveness against peers, and regulatory changes requiring more in-person classes. The move comes as Afya and Yduqs combine to form a major education competitor.

The analysts cut their 2027 net income forecast for Cogna by 18%, placing their estimate 13% below market consensus. The revision incorporates weaker student intake trends alongside anticipated pressure on revenue and margins at Kroton in the second half of this year.

While the analysts estimate Cogna offers a potential return between 32% and 38%, they pointed out that preferred sector names offer higher upside. Yduqs remains the bank's top education pick with an estimated potential total return near 61%, followed by Vitru and Cruzeiro do Sul.