Itaú BBA cuts Nubank to neutral and lowers target to $18

On 16 September 2026, Itaú BBA downgraded Nubank from outperform to market perform and lowered its price target to $18 by the end of 2027, down from $20 for end-2026. The new target implies an upside potential of 26.8% compared to the closing price on Tuesday, 15 September.

Analysts Pedro Leduc, William Barranjard, and Kelvin Dechen explained that the digital lender faces a deceleration in both growth and profitability in 2027. Itaú BBA projects Nubank's annual profit growth to slow to 14% in 2027, compared to an estimated 32% increase in 2026. The bank cut its 2027 earnings per share estimates for Nubank by 8%, leaving its projection 15% below consensus.

The research team highlighted multiple headwinds, including slower credit growth, tougher comparative bases in personal loans, and expanding investments in the United States while the Mexico operation remains too small to offset cooling momentum in Brazil. On the macroeconomic front, the analysts pointed to weaker mass consumption as stimulus wanes and potential Central Bank macroprudential rules targeting higher-cost credit products.

Itaú BBA noted that Nubank trades at multiples of 17 times projected 2026 price-to-earnings and 4.4 times price-to-book value, leaving little room for operational disappointments. Following the revision, Bradesco became the brokerage's sole outperform rating among large Brazilian banks.