UBS upgrades Glencore to buy with a 650p price target

UBS upgraded Glencore to "buy" from "neutral" and raised its 12-month price target to 650 pence from 620 pence. Shares of Glencore closed at 549 pence on Thursday, September 24.

The broker cited a more attractive risk-reward profile following a decline of more than 10% in the stock since late August. That drop followed macro concerns, weaker coal prices, and an escalating dispute with Radiant World, which filed a $2 billion legal claim on September 15. Glencore has stated its exposure is not material and that the claims lack merit.

UBS raised its 2026 and 2027 EBITDA forecasts for Glencore by 5% and 7%, respectively. At spot prices, the bank sees about 15% upside to consensus 2027 EBITDA and expects the company to generate around $10 billion in free cash flow, representing an 11% free cash flow yield.

Glencore's commodity basket has risen approximately 20% year-to-date. Thermal coal, metallurgical coal, and zinc have each gained around 30%, while copper is up about 12%. UBS noted that stronger Marketing earnings, copper growth visibility, asset sales, and shareholder returns all support the upgrade.