Brazil DI futures drop below 14% across medium and long curves

Brazilian interest rate futures settled lower on Monday, September 21, 2026, pushing medium and long-term contracts to intraday lows. The January 2031 DI contract dropped from 14.035% to 13.880%, falling below the 14% threshold.

Shorter-dated contracts also declined. The DI contract for January 2027 moved from 13.554% at the previous settlement to 13.550%. The January 2029 DI reached an intraday low of 13.675%, down from 13.831% on Friday, September 18.

A drop in oil prices provided the main relief to global sovereign curves. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, noted that crude oil recorded its longest downward streak since June. In the United States, the 10-year Treasury note yield declined from 4.997% to 4.954% by 5:25 p.m., ahead of a scheduled diplomatic summit on Thursday between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Locally, the central bank's Focus survey showed median forecasts for the year-end Selic benchmark rate fell from 13.75% to 13.50%, indicating market expectations for an additional 0.25 percentage point cut in November. Alexandre Espirito Santo, chief economist at Way Investimentos, also pointed to investor positioning around the presidential election, citing international betting platform Polymarket showing a 63% probability of victory for Flavio Bolsonaro versus 37% for President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, after a BTG/Nexus poll showed a technical tie.