Brazilian DI futures fall on election optimism and oil slide

Brazilian interbank deposit futures closed lower on Friday, September 25, 2026, supported by market expectations around the October presidential election and a decline of more than 2% in international oil prices.

The January 2027 contract yield slipped from 13.56% at the prior settlement to 13.55%. The January 2028 contract fell from 13.665% to 13.63%, the January 2029 contract moved from 13.86% to 13.815%, and the January 2031 rate dropped from 14.015% to 13.935%.

The yields declined even after mid-month inflation figures came in above forecasts. The IPCA-15 index rose 0.70% in September following deflation in August, driven by price accelerations in core inflation measures and underlying services. Felipe Rodrigo Oliveira, chief economist at MAG Investimentos, noted that the print shows qualitative pressure and supports a vigilant monetary policy stance.

Market positioning reflected changing political expectations. A Datafolha poll released on the evening of September 24 showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 40% of first-round voter intention against 36% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, placing them within the margin of error, with second-round projections at 47% and 45%. Citi strategist Ivan Riveros stated that the bank opened a receiver position in January 2028 contracts, citing shifting polls ahead of the vote.

External markets also supported the move. United States Treasury yields declined toward the close of trading in New York, where the 10-year note yield dropped from 5.205% to 5.168%.