Chile CPI rises 0.4% in September

Chile's Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in September, the National Statistics Institute reported on October 8, 2026. The print brought cumulative inflation for the first nine months of the year to 4.0% and the 12-month rate to 4.1%. Following the release, the Unidad de Fomento will increase by 164 Chilean pesos over the month, reaching 41,295.5 Chilean pesos by November 9, 2026.

Eight of the 13 basket divisions showed positive contributions, four posted decreases, and education remained unchanged. Food and non-alcoholic beverages climbed 0.6%, adding 0.133 percentage points, led by vegetables, legumes, and tubers rising 4.1% and fruits and nuts increasing 3.1%. Transportation advanced 0.9%, adding 0.122 percentage points, driven by personal vehicle fuels rising 3.7% and road passenger transport climbing 2.9%. The other positive divisions together added 0.219 percentage points.

By specific products, gasoline prices rose 2.7%, contributing 0.093 percentage points with an accumulated gain of 20.8% in 2026. Electricity supply increased 1.6%, adding 0.055 percentage points and accumulating 2.4% this year. Diesel fuel jumped 10.2%, lifting its year-to-date increase to 36.8%. On the downside, air transport fell 18.7%, subtracting 0.126 percentage points despite a 5.6% year-to-date change, while domestic air transport shows an accumulated drop of 3.6%. Insurance and financial services dropped 5.9%, subtracting 0.056 percentage points, with insurance down 7.7% in the month and 11.1% in the year. Restaurants and accommodation fell 0.2%, alcoholic beverages and tobacco dropped 0.3%, and miscellaneous goods and services decreased 0.1%.

Private forecasters place their year-end inflation expectations between 4.5% and 5.0%, above the 4.3% projected by the central bank in its September Monetary Policy Report. Coopeuch expects October inflation between 0.3% and 0.4%, closing the year at 4.5%. OCEC-UDP projects an October print of 0.4% and an annual rate of 4.4%, also forecasting year-end inflation around 4.5%. Vittorio Peretti, economist at Banco Itaú, maintained his year-end projection at 4.7%, citing the Mepco mechanism and exchange-rate pass-through risks. Santander kept its year-end forecast at 5.0% due to elevated international fuel prices and currency depreciation.

Economists broadly expect the central bank to keep its monetary policy rate unchanged at 4.5% through the rest of 2026 and into early 2027. The next rate-setting meeting is scheduled for October 26 and 27, 2026. Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz noted that price stability remains the responsibility of the central bank and stated that necessary monetary measures should be taken to keep inflation contained.