JPMorgan cuts PagSeguro price target to $10

PagSeguro Digital had its price target lowered by JPMorgan to $10 per share for December 2027, down from the previous target of $12 for December 2026. In an 11 September report, the bank maintained its neutral rating on the stock, pointing to stiffer competition among Brazilian card acquirers and pressure on transaction take rates following second-quarter 2026 earnings.

JPMorgan also raised its forecast for Brazil's benchmark Selic interest rate from next year to around 14%, up from 12.5% previously. The bank cut its 2026 recurring net income projection for PagSeguro by 2% to BRL 2.23 billion, representing 6% growth over 2025. For 2027, it trimmed its profit estimate by 8% to BRL 2.28 billion, reflecting 2% year-on-year growth. Adjusted earnings per share for 2026 rose 7.6% from BRL 7.54 to BRL 8.11, helped by share buybacks.

The bank forecasts net revenue of BRL 5.10 billion in the third quarter of 2026 and BRL 5.28 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with BRL 5.00 billion and BRL 5.08 billion recorded in the first two quarters. For the full year 2026, projected net revenue stands at BRL 20.47 billion, close to the BRL 20.41 billion reported in 2025. Competition in the sector widened on 11 September when BTG Pactual launched BTG Pay, its business payment platform combining point-of-sale terminals, payment links, and cards.

The evaluation follows corporate governance changes announced on 21 August, when founder Luiz Frias stepped down as chairman after nine years while remaining indirect controlling shareholder. The board named Maria Judith de Brito as chair and reappointed Eduardo Alcaro as vice chairman. On 14 September, PagSeguro shares traded at $10.01 in New York, up 3.20% over 12 months and 3.52% year to date, after closing at $10.12 on 11 September.