Lima consumer prices rise 0.12% in September

Consumer prices in Metropolitan Lima increased 0.12% in September, bringing accumulated inflation for the first nine months of the year to 4.28% and the 12-month rate to 4.55%, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI). Across Peru, national consumer prices rose 0.14% during the month, with an accumulated increase of 4.02% and a 12-month rate of 4.17%.

The monthly increase was driven by vehicle fuels, which climbed 5.2% in Lima as gasohol rose 5.8% and diesel increased 3.9%. Taxi fares advanced 0.9%, while restaurants and hotels rose 0.19%. Conversely, food and non-alcoholic beverages dropped 0.07%, supported by falls in fish and seafood of 8%, whole chicken of 4.6%, and fruit of 1%. Those declines offset increases in tomatoes, up 28.92%, and brown sugar, up 16.19%.

Paola Herrera, senior economist at the Instituto Peruano de Economía (IPE), noted that transport, food, and restaurant prices accounted for about 3.5 percentage points of the 12-month inflation rate, or roughly 80% of the total. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.07% in Lima in September. In transport, prices were up 15.1% year-on-year.

For the outlook, Pamela Bernabé, economist at Macroconsult, stated that the firm will raise its inflation projections for 2026 and 2027 due to external pressures and early rainfall risks from El Niño Costero. The IPE expects inflation to end 2026 around 4.5%, above the central bank target range of 1% to 3%, before moderating to 2.6% by the end of 2027. Given persistent pressures, Herrera noted that the IPE preliminarily projects the central bank will raise its benchmark interest rate by at least 25 basis points in the final quarter of the year.