Nike falls as BofA cuts rating and lowers target to $30

Nike shares dropped more than 2% in premarket trading on Friday, September 25, 2026, after Bank of America downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral. The bank slashed its price objective to $30 from $47, stating that Nike's sales recovery will likely be delayed until fiscal 2028.

BofA analysts led by Lorraine Hutchinson cut fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 11% and 12%, respectively. They now project negative sales growth through fiscal 2027, leaving their fiscal 2027 EPS projection 14% below the Visible Alpha consensus. The firm also lowered its income rating, noting a dividend payout ratio above 100%. The new $30 target uses a 16 times price-to-earnings multiple, down from 22 times.

The analysts warned that North America wholesale, which grew 14% in fiscal 2026 despite flat overall sales, will slow as sell-through lags sell-in, forecasting wholesale declines starting in the second quarter and lasting through fiscal 2027. In China, BofA reported weak sports demand, uninspiring new products, cooling running demand, and excess inventory alongside promotional pressure.

Nike shares have dropped 44% year-to-date, compared with a 12% gain for the S&P 500. BofA noted that earnings now rely heavily on gross margin expansion and cost control. While tariffs have fallen to 10% to 12.5% from roughly 20% a year ago, the bank expects Nike's new CFO to focus on cutting operating overhead expenses.