Peru GDP growth estimate for 2026 cut to 3.2% by BCRP

Peru's central reserve bank, the BCRP, trimmed its 2026 gross domestic product growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.2% in its September Inflation Report on 18 September 2026. The monetary authority also cut its 2027 growth outlook from 3.2% to 3% due to climate anomalies linked to an extraordinary El Niño event.

BCRP President Julio Velarde explained that El Niño is now projected to subtract 0.9 percentage points from economic growth in 2026, up from the 0.7-point drag estimated in June 2026. For 2027, the negative impact was revised from 0.9 points to 1.1 points. Velarde noted that losses are focused on primary sectors such as agriculture, fishing, and primary manufacturing, along with non-primary segments like textiles due to weaker winter apparel demand.

Primary sectors are now projected to contract 2.3% in 2026. The BCRP projects agriculture to decline 1.5% and fishing to drop 30.7%. Through July, figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) show that agriculture contracted 0.67% and fishing fell 32.58% amid higher sea temperatures and winds. Primary manufacturing, driven by fishmeal and fish oil production, is expected to contract 7.1% this year.

The central bank maintained its 2026 non-primary sector growth forecast at 4.7%. Construction is expected to lead expansion at 9.5%, adjusted from 10% in June. Meanwhile, commerce saw its growth forecast raised from 4.5% to 5.9%, and the electricity and water segment was revised upward from 3.1% to 5%.