U.S. Bancorp targets high end of Q3 revenue guidance

U.S. Bancorp expects its third-quarter 2026 net interest income growth to reach the high end of its previously projected 4% to 6% year-over-year range. The bank attributes the trend to an improving asset mix, fixed-asset repricing and solid balance-sheet momentum. Management also projects net interest margin expansion in both the third and fourth quarters, while projecting full-year loan growth of 6% to 7%.

The lender expects another quarter of record consumer deposits, with total deposit growth potentially outpacing loan expansion. On the fee side, revenues are projected to approach the upper end of 12% to 14% growth in the third quarter. Fees accounted for 44% to 45% of total revenues in the second quarter of 2026, when overall fee revenue rose 13.2% year over year.

Capital markets momentum has strengthened following the purchase of BTIG, which contributed $98 million in fee revenues during its partial second quarter. Management previously indicated BTIG could deliver $200 million in quarterly fee revenues in the second half of 2026, with longer-term plans to lift capital markets from 7% to 8% of total revenue up to 10% to 11%. Payments revenues are also expected to grow, though merchant processing revenue is projected to stay flat year over year for the next two to three quarters.

Non-interest expenses are expected to rise 8% year over year in the third quarter, driven by the BTIG integration, higher compensation, marketing, technology and an increase in annual branch spending from roughly $200 million to about $300 million. Even with higher costs, U.S. Bancorp targets at least 200 basis points of full-year operating leverage, or at least 300 basis points excluding BTIG. Shares of U.S. Bancorp have gained 21.4% over the past year, compared with a 23.8% gain for its industry.