Bradesco BBI cuts Klabin to neutral and lowers target to R$ 21

Bradesco BBI downgraded Klabin from outperform to neutral on September 22, 2026, cutting its target price from R$ 24.00 to R$ 21.00 per unit. The bank pointed to the accumulated rally in the company's units and reduced its 2027 EBITDA forecast for Klabin by 11% to R$ 8.0 billion.

The research team highlighted that while capital allocation has improved alongside a more favorable paper mix and a recovery in the kraftliner market, Klabin trades at 7.1 times estimated 2027 EBITDA. This multiple reflects a more balanced risk-reward profile, while limited cash generation is expected to keep balance-sheet deleveraging gradual.

The move comes as Bradesco BBI cut its aggregate 2027 EBITDA estimates across the pulp sector by 14%, citing long-term structural challenges. The bank lowered its 2027 price estimate for hardwood pulp from US$ 605 to US$ 584 per ton and trimmed its long-term baseline from US$ 600 to US$ 570 per ton, driven by expanding integrated production in China, paper market overcapacity, and new industry supply.

In the broader sector, Suzano remains Bradesco BBI's sole outperform rating among covered pulp producers, though its target price was lowered from R$ 73.00 to R$ 59.00 for year-end 2027. Outside pure pulp, the bank maintained a buy recommendation on Dexco with a target price of R$ 7.00.