Chile Central Bank Cuts 2026 GDP Forecast

Chile's central bank lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to a range between 0.25% and 0.75% in its September Monetary Policy Report. The previous estimate published in June projected expansion between 1.0% and 1.75%.

The monetary authority pointed to weaker domestic spending, soft July economic performance, and lower mining output. Annual growth in local expenditure slowed from 2.3% in the first quarter to 0.1% in the second quarter. The unemployment rate reached 9.5%, or 9.3% seasonally adjusted, which weighed on real wage growth.

Domestic demand growth expectations for 2026 fell from 2.2% to 1.1%. Total consumption is now projected to grow 1.7% instead of 2.2%, with private consumption trimmed from 1.8% to 1.5%. Fixed investment projections dropped from an expansion of 2.2% to a contraction of 0.3%.

For 2027, the central bank maintained its GDP growth range at 2% to 3%, while raising the 2028 estimate to between 2.25% and 3.25%. Investment is projected to expand 8.1% in 2027, supported by the Reconstruction Law, which the bank expects will add about 0.5 percentage points to annual growth in 2027 and 2028.

Annual headline inflation has fluctuated near 4%, while core inflation excluding volatile items has stayed between 3.2% and 3.4%.