Goldman Sachs cuts Tesla delivery outlook to 435,000 cars

Goldman Sachs has cut its vehicle delivery estimates for Tesla, pointing to softer sales trends across the company's major markets. On 19 September, the investment bank lowered its third-quarter delivery forecast to 435,000 vehicles from 490,000. It also reduced its fourth-quarter projection to 475,000 vehicles from 515,000.

The bank noted that weekly and monthly sales in China, the United States, and Europe are trailing previous expectations. Goldman's updated third-quarter forecast stands below the market consensus estimate of 456,000 vehicles. Its revised fourth-quarter figure remains above the consensus estimate of 462,000 vehicles, leaving year-end delivery numbers as a key test of whether the sales slowdown is temporary. Broader availability of the Model Y L could provide support.

As core auto sales face pressure, Tesla is relying more heavily on autonomy projects such as Full Self-Driving and the Cybercab robotaxi. Tesla is currently operating robotaxi services in Austin, Texas. The program faces regulatory review from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), which is examining whether Tesla properly self-certified the pedal-free and steering-wheel-free vehicles under federal safety standards.

Market positioning reflects growing caution. As of 31 August, short interest reached 74.2 million shares, representing 2.35% of Tesla's public float with 2 days to cover. Bearish bets rose 7.27% from the prior reading.