Kalshi adds three transparency tools to election markets

Prediction market exchange Kalshi is rolling out three features on its election contracts to give traders more visibility into market activity and accuracy ahead of the US midterm elections.

The platform is introducing tags for low-volume election markets, which it defines as those with under $10,000 in trading volume. Prediction market analysts have noted that low-volume markets can experience wider price swings and wider spreads between bids and asks. Kalshi is also adding Brier scores to measure how closely contract probabilities match actual outcomes, along with a live activity feed showing individual trades as they occur.

Kalshi introduced the changes after observing higher trader engagement in local races compared to national ones. Co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour stated that this year's midterm election markets have expanded six times faster than football contracts compared to the previous year, calling it the first meaningful prediction market election.

Company data shows that five times as many people view its midterm markets as actually place trades. The rollout follows Kalshi's launch of a Midterms Hub in July, which allows visitors to track odds for US Senate and House of Representatives races.