Marvell targets $80 billion revenue as Wall Street hikes targets

Marvell Technology shares gained nearly 6% to close at $287.01, outpacing a 1% rise in the SOX semiconductor index. The rally followed the company's Tuesday analyst day, where executives significantly increased long-term revenue and earnings projections.

Management raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20 billion from $18 billion. For fiscal 2031, Marvell introduced a revenue framework of $70 billion to $90 billion, or $80 billion at the midpoint, which is roughly 10 times fiscal 2026 levels. The chipmaker is targeting earnings above $30 per share, gross margins between 56% and 59%, and estimated its 2030 total addressable market at around $400 billion. It also increased its fiscal 2029 custom revenue goal to more than $12 billion from more than $10 billion.

TD Cowen upgraded Marvell to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to $350 from $245. Analyst Sean O'Loughlin said growth drivers have shifted toward the connectivity franchise and that custom chip risks have largely declined. Custom accelerators now represent about 19% of the 2030 target, down from more than 40% expected last year. However, O'Loughlin noted potential risks, including limited custom adoption among hyperscalers and a potential slowdown in data center spending.

Several other brokerages raised their valuation targets. Jefferies lifted its target to $450 from $325, calling the $30 per share forecast conservative and highlighting the $37.5 billion fiscal 2031 interconnect target. B. Riley raised its target to $365 from $315, noting that 2030 sales and profit goals stood 73% and 67% above consensus, backed by over 100 active projects and secured supply. Stifel increased its target to $370 from $350, projecting fiscal 2031 earnings of $24.30 to $40.59 per share. Susquehanna raised its target to $340 from $265 with a Positive rating, expecting operating expenses to grow at half the pace of revenue through fiscal 2031.