Mexican Cetes holdings rise 1.4% among foreigners

Foreign holdings of Mexican treasury certificates, known as Cetes, rose during 2026 despite the interest rate spread between Banco de México and the Federal Reserve dropping to an all-time low. As of September 21, 2026, foreign holdings in Cetes reached MXN 189,767 million, according to data from Banxico. The figure represented an inflow of MXN 2,699 million compared to the end of 2025, which is an increase of 1.4%.

Cetes accounted for 10.6% of all government securities held by foreign investors, which reached a total balance of MXN 1.788 trillion. During 2026, total holdings of Mexican government debt by non-residents grew by MXN 49,108 million.

The spread between Banxico and Fed benchmark interest rates dropped to 250 basis points in September, marking its lowest level on record. The move followed a Fed rate hike from 3.75% to 4.00%, while Banxico kept its target rate unchanged at 6.50%. Janneth Quiroz, director of Economic, FX, and Stock Market Analysis at Monex, stated that rather than a generalized exit of capital, the narrower gap points to a selective repositioning, where investors reduce duration or adjust currency exposure.

Medium and long-term Bonos M made up the largest share of foreign inflows in 2026. Foreign holdings in Bonos M reached MXN 1.518 trillion by September 21, 2026, up MXN 38,852 million from the end of 2025. Bonos M accounted for almost 85% of foreign-held sovereign debt and about 79% of the year's total increase. In contrast, foreign balances in inflation-linked Udibonos dropped 3.6% or MXN 2,004 million, moving from MXN 55,577 million at the end of 2025 to MXN 53,573 million on September 21, 2026.