Oil rises as Brent hits $101.20 on supply threats

Crude oil futures rose on Wednesday, October 7, 2026, as markets weighed supply constraints driven by a storm heading toward US production areas and Houthi strikes against Saudi Arabia against higher Middle Eastern flows. Brent crude futures rose 64 cents, or 0.64%, to $101.20 per barrel by 4:52 a.m. Brasília time. US West Texas Intermediate futures gained 42 cents, or 0.47%, to $89.86 per barrel.

US forecasters warned on Tuesday, October 6, that a storm in the Gulf of Mexico would become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 within two days and likely hit oil and gas infrastructure. Offshore Gulf areas in its path account for 15% of US crude production and 5% of natural gas output. The weather system could affect six refineries. Refineries in US Gulf states represent about 50% of national capacity of 18.2 million barrels per day.

US crude inventories declined by 2.09 million barrels in the week ended October 2, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. At the same time, regional Middle East supply has expanded. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline reached 5.8 million barrels per day, according to Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on October 6. Vitol's CEO said about 12 million barrels per day of crude and 2 million barrels per day of refined products left the Middle East by tanker over the prior 7 to 10 days.

Geopolitical friction continues to pressure the market. Saudi Arabia's aviation authority reported that Jazan and Najran airports were targeted in two strikes on Monday night, October 5, amid escalating fighting between the kingdom and Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Mukesh Sahdev, chief oil analyst at X Analysts in Sydney, noted that attacks and refinery outages will likely keep product differentials elevated and that crude prices could stay near $100 per barrel absent significant de-escalation.