Moody's and Allvue launch risk model for private credit

Moody's Corporation announced on October 1, 2026, that Moody's Analytics has partnered with private capital data provider Allvue Systems to launch the Moody's Analytics EDF-X Private Credit Model. The forward-looking tool is designed to identify early signs of borrower distress, such as covenant waivers and payment-in-kind arrangements, before they result in missed payments or defaults.

Moody's projects that the private credit market will approach $4 trillion in assets by 2030. Unlike public debt markets, private credit lacks standardized disclosures and public ratings. The new model relies on de-identified performance data from Allvue, whose technology is used by more than 1,000 private capital firms directly or through fund administrators.

The tool is the first Moody's model calibrated directly on observed private credit performance. It separately calculates the probability of hard credit events, including defaults, and the soft events that precede them. The service is accessible to customers through the Moody's Analytics EDF-X API and joins solutions such as EDF-X CreditGradient, functioning separately from Moody's Ratings.