Raw sugar jumps 4% to 20.73 cents on ICE

Raw sugar futures on the ICE exchange rose 4% on Monday, October 5, 2026, climbing past 20 cents per pound to reach a 19-month high. The front-month contract settled up 0.8 cent, or 4%, at 20.73 cents per pound, after touching a session peak of 20.81 cents. The advance follows a 7.7% gain logged during the previous week.

The rally was driven by fears of excessive rainfall linked to El Niño in Brazil, the world's largest producer. Brazilian production fell 41.6% in the first half of September due to heavy rains, while brokers reported weather-related loading delays at domestic ports. In a market note, analysts at Green Pool stated that given record rainfall in September and forecasts for further rain through October, the market appears convinced that sugar production will fall well below initial estimates.

El Niño is also projected to impair output across the other top producers, India and Thailand, while the European Union's upcoming crop faces sharp declines following summer drought. Meanwhile, white sugar futures advanced 3% to settle at $547.60 per metric ton, after reaching $552.50, their highest level since late August.

Arabica coffee gained 3.8 cents, or 1.3%, to finish at $2.9255 per pound, extending the prior week's 3.6% rise. David Behrends of Sucafina noted that while a large Brazilian crop is still anticipated for 2026/27, low inventories and strong physical prices in Colombia and Central America keep participants bullish. Brokers also highlighted a surge of nearly 5% in the Brazilian real after election results increased the chances of presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, a currency move that typically slows exporter selling. Robusta coffee rose 1.7% to $3,528 per ton, while top producer Vietnam exported 1.45 million metric tons of coffee in the first nine months of 2026, up 16.2%.

In cocoa, London futures climbed £143, or 3.4%, to £4,382 per ton, and New York futures gained 3.5% to $5,867 per ton. A Reuters survey indicated that Ivory Coast's main crop could drop by roughly 17% this season due to scarce rainfall. Port arrivals in Ivory Coast reached 18,000 metric tons for the week ended October 4, bringing total volume since the start of the 2025/26 season to 54,500 tons.