Shell expects $2.5B German emissions outflow in Q3

Shell published its third quarter 2026 update note on October 7, outlining key operational and cash flow factors ahead of its scheduled results release on October 29, 2026. The company expects cash flow from operations excluding working capital to reflect an outflow of approximately $2.5 billion due to the timing of payments for emissions certificates under the German Fuel Emissions Trading Act.

The energy group noted that exploration well write-offs for the third quarter are projected to reach around $0.3 billion. Marketing adjusted earnings are forecast to decline compared to the second quarter of 2026, while low water levels on the Rhine River have reduced utilisation at its Rheinland refinery. Trading and optimisation performance is anticipated to remain in line with the second quarter.

Cash flow from operations excluding working capital includes a $0.8 billion joint-venture dividend inflow, which is offset by a matching $0.8 billion outflow through working capital, resulting in zero net impact. Meanwhile, non-cash post-tax impairments on biogas assets in the Marketing division are expected to be largely balanced by an impairment reversal in Integrated Gas.

Shell closed its acquisition of ARC Resources on September 2, 2026, and said the transaction is included in its third quarter outlook. Net debt will reflect the cash consideration and assumed debt from the purchase, alongside higher variable components in long-term shipping leases. Consensus figures compiled by Vara Research are scheduled for publication on October 21, 2026.