Vale drops below R$ 70 for the first time this year

Vale shares dropped 2.18% to close at R$ 69.61 on Tuesday, September 29, 2026. This marked the first time this year that the stock finished a trading session below R$ 70.

The decline followed a third consecutive drop in iron ore prices. On China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-traded iron ore contract fell 0.78% to 699 yuan, or $104.26 per metric ton. In Singapore, the benchmark contract slid to around $94. China port arrivals across 47 ports climbed by 1.17 million metric tons over the past week to 29.85 million metric tons, while weak steelmaker margins weighed on demand.

Adding to the pressure, UBS BB maintained a neutral rating on Vale but lowered its price target on the local shares from R$ 85 to R$ 77, and on the ADRs from $16.50 to $15. The bank raised its structural long-term iron ore forecast from $85 to $93 per metric ton in real 2026 terms. However, higher freight costs and lower shipment estimates for the second half of 2026 and 2027 offset that increase.

For 2027, UBS BB cut its EBITDA projection for Vale by 7% to $15.3 billion and reduced its net income estimate by 12% to $6.35 billion. The bank projects iron ore at $95 per metric ton in 2027 and $92 in 2028, citing supply additions such as the Simandou project, before turning more constructive starting in 2029.