Weekly Market Recap (July 13-19): Chips, Oil & US Inflation

Global markets closed the week of July 13-17 in a cautious, mostly-red mood. A two-day sell-off in semiconductors, fresh tension around oil and the Strait of Hormuz, and softer-than-expected US inflation set the tone. For Latin American investors, a stronger dollar and mostly lower regional stocks capped it off. Here is what moved, why it mattered, and what to watch next week.

The week in 30 seconds

Chips and AI: semiconductors sold off for two straight days. SK Hynix dropped around 15%, and the new Chinese model Kimi K3 revived fears of a "DeepSeek moment" - the worry that cheaper AI could undercut expensive chipmakers. Apple (AAPL) reclaimed the crown as the world's most valuable company, overtaking Nvidia (NVDA).

[1] Reuters - chip stocks

Oil and Iran: crude jumped hard (Brent near US$88) as tension escalated around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint for global oil. The US dollar and US Treasury bonds acted as safe havens, which is the classic "risk-off" reflex when geopolitics flares up.

US inflation: both consumer prices (CPI) and producer prices came in lower than expected. Markets now assign a low chance (around 17%) to a rate hike this month, though Fed official Kevin Warsh cautioned against declaring victory on inflation too soon.

[1] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - CPI

Mixed earnings: Morgan Stanley (MS) and ASML (ASML) impressed, while IBM (IBM) suffered its worst-ever single-day drop (around 25%). Netflix (NFLX) fell roughly 9% after trimming its guidance, and PayPal (PYPL) jumped 17% on a reported US$53 billion takeover offer.

Latin America: regional exchanges were mostly in the red with a firm dollar. The US said it would apply a 25% tariff on Brazil starting July 22, and a winter storm in Chile put copper - a key Chilean export - on alert.

The weekly scoreboard

These are the reference figures from our newsletter, showing the weekly change versus the prior Friday's close. Treat them as a snapshot of direction, not precise closing prices - and remember a single week says little about a long-term plan.

Weekly change by asset (%)

Change versus the prior Friday's close. Reference figures from the El Fondo newsletter.

The mood of the week: cautious

Our sentiment gauge landed at 43 out of 100 - in "fear" territory, on a scale that runs from calm to euphoria. The chip sell-off and Middle East tension cooled risk appetite and pushed the thermometer down. This is not a reason to panic: it is exactly the kind of week where a steady plan and a long horizon matter most. Spreading money across different assets, an idea known as diversification, is what helps a portfolio ride out weeks like this.

The biggest movers

The week's largest swings came from small, speculative names - a reminder that eye-catching percentage moves usually carry outsized volatility and risk. On the winning side, Sadot Group (SDOT) rose 77.5%, Southland (SLND) gained 67.3%, and Callan JMB (CJMB) added 41.7%. On the losing side, T3 Defense (DFNS) fell 65.0%, Jet.AI (JTAI) dropped 62.6%, and VCI Global (VCIG) lost 58.9%.

Triple-digit weekly moves almost always come from thinly traded micro-cap stocks. They can swing just as violently in the other direction - impressive gains are not a buy signal, and this is not a recommendation to trade any of these names.

Looking cheaper right now: Microsoft

Microsoft (MSFT) screened as relatively cheap this week, trading around $393.82 at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 23.4x - well below its historical multiple near 33x - even as its Azure cloud and AI business (Copilot) keep growing at double digits. The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, tells you how much you pay for each dollar of a company's profit, so a lower number can mean a stock is cheaper relative to its own history. Other names that screened at modest multiples included Meta META and BMW BMW.DE.

A lower multiple is context, not a verdict. A stock can look "cheap" for good reasons - slowing growth, sector headwinds, or cyclical earnings - so the multiple is a starting question, not an answer. This is education, not a recommendation to buy any specific company.

Learn this week: asset allocation

Weeks like this one are the reason asset allocation - how you split your money across stocks, bonds, cash and other assets - matters more than any single trade. Getting the mix right for your goals and risk tolerance does more for long-term results than trying to time the next chip sell-off.

The week ahead

A heavy earnings calendar dominates the coming week, alongside a key LATAM data point:

Mon 21: Starbucks (SBUX) earnings
Tue 22: General Motors (GM) earnings
Wed 23: Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) earnings
Thu 24: Intel (INTC) and T-Mobile (TMUS) earnings
Fri 25: Mexico's mid-month inflation (INEGI) and ExxonMobil (XOM) earnings

Big Tech results from Alphabet and Tesla will test whether the AI trade can steady after the chip wobble, while Mexico's inflation print is the Latin American number worth watching for clues on the local rate path.

Legal Notice: Education, not advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns. Investing always involves risks.

Your Week in the Market (July 13-17): Chip Sell-Off, Oil Spike and Softer US Inflation

Referenced Assets

The week in 30 seconds

The weekly scoreboard

Weekly change by asset (%)

The mood of the week: cautious

The biggest movers

Looking cheaper right now: Microsoft

Learn this week: asset allocation

The week ahead

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Weekly change by asset (%)