Deutsche Bank cuts Enphase 2027 EPS estimate by 21%

Deutsche Bank has taken a tactically negative stance on Enphase Energy, setting a 2027 adjusted earnings estimate of $1.73 per share. This projection sits 21% below Wall Street consensus, according to a research note from analyst Corinne Blanchard published on October 7, 2026.

The bank forecasts 2027 revenue of $1.1 billion for Enphase, trailing market expectations of $1.2 billion by 7%. Blanchard warned that consensus models rely on unrealistic assumptions regarding safe-harbor revenues, which represent pull-forward sales encouraged by United States solar incentives. Deutsche Bank estimates Enphase recorded approximately $255 million in safe-harbor sales in 2026.

Excluding those policy-related sales, the bank calculated that meeting consensus 2027 top-line projections would require core organic revenue to jump roughly 33% year over year. Blanchard described that implied growth rate as overly aggressive and highly unrealistic, while the bank also noted that its fourth-quarter 2026 revenue forecast stands 4% below consensus.

Deutsche Bank does not anticipate an immediate third-quarter earnings miss. Instead, it expects the company's third-quarter report to trigger a downward reset of 2027 expectations across Wall Street. Over the past three months, Enphase shares have declined 23%, matching a 23% drop in the Invesco Solar ETF over the same span.