Ibovespa rebounds to 183,898 points after dropping 0.84%

The Ibovespa erased its early losses on Monday, September 28, moving from a morning low of 181,931.36 points (down 0.84%) to a peak of 183,898.57 points, up 0.23%. The index had opened stable at 183,476.36 points, after closing down 0.27% on Friday at 183,476.86 points, which left it with a 0.95% weekly loss.

The early drop tracked declines across New York equity benchmarks and rising Treasury yields, which lifted Brazilian interest-rate futures. However, crude oil futures advanced about 2% amid stalled US-Iran negotiations and ongoing Middle East tensions. Petrobras shares rose near 2%, while Vale cut its decline around 11:30 local time to trade down 0.01%, despite a 0.91% slide in Dalian iron ore contracts.

Domestic political attention centered on the upcoming first round of the presidential election. A BTG/Nexus poll published on Monday showed Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 46% and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at 44% in a potential runoff, while a Quaest survey put both at 43%. In first-round polling, Quaest showed Lula with 39% of voter intentions and Flavio Bolsonaro with 34%, whereas prediction markets such as Polymarket assigned roughly 57% odds to Flavio Bolsonaro.

Macroeconomic projections also shifted in Monday's central bank Focus bulletin. The median forecast for 2026 IPCA inflation rose from 4.92% to 4.99%, while the 2027 projection edged up from 4.30% to 4.31%. Smoothed 12-month inflation expectations reached 4.65%, above the 4.50% ceiling. The year-end 2026 Selic rate projection held at 13.50%. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Dario Durigan stated the government will not refund betting house license fees following the prohibition of the betting sector.