Ibovespa rises 8.82% to reach a record 209,066.90 points

The Ibovespa surged 8.82% across the week ending October 9, 2026, closing at a nominal all-time high of 209,066.90 points. The performance marked the benchmark index's strongest weekly gain since March 2020. Over the same period, the US dollar closed at R$ 4.9851, dropping 0.44% against the Brazilian real.

Market movement followed the October 4 presidential election, where Flávio Bolsonaro secured a lead of 2.2 million votes over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Polls by Datafolha showed Bolsonaro leading with 49% against Lula's 45% in a technical tie, while AtlasIntel/Bloomberg put Bolsonaro ahead at 51.1% to 45.7%. In response, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley raised their ratings on Brazilian equities to overweight, anticipating potential fiscal adjustments starting in 2027. Local interest-rate futures dropped more than 100 basis points on mid- and long-term contracts, with long-term yields falling from near 14% to the 12% range. The market priced in an over 90% chance of 0.25 percentage point cuts to the Selic rate in November and December.

Domestic macro data also featured during the week. Brazil's IPCA consumer price index rose 0.82% in September, following a 0.32% drop in August. The 12-month inflation rate reached 4.58%, exceeding the central bank's target ceiling of 3% with a 1.5 percentage point tolerance band.

Among individual stocks, Magazine Luiza led the gainers with a 60.58% jump, followed by Vamos at 44.73%, Smart Fit at 43.96%, and MRV at 38.90%. Conversely, Embraer led weekly decliners with a 9.20% drop, weighed down by currency movements, while Vale fell 5.83% amid iron-ore volatility.