Bradesco surges 14% to R$ 21.98 after Brazilian vote

Banco Bradesco preferred shares climbed 14.30% to R$ 21.98 around 1:20 p.m. on Monday, October 5, 2026, after reaching an intraday peak of R$ 22.10. The rally outpaced the benchmark Ibovespa index, which rose 8.88% to 209,175 points after touching a record high of 209,605 points.

The market moved sharply following the first round of the presidential election, where Flávio Bolsonaro finished roughly 2 percentage points ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, leading up to a runoff on October 25. Large Brazilian lenders followed the surge: Banco do Brasil gained 12.23%, Itaú rose 11.64%, and Itaúsa advanced 11.25%. Capital markets firms posted larger jumps, with XP up 27.75%, BTG Pactual up 26.99%, and B3 up 26.89%.

A sharp drop in future interest rates supported the rally. Bruno Perri, chief economist and founding partner at Forum Investimentos, noted that lower discount rates raise the present value of cash flows while easing credit pressures and default risks for banks. Lucas Xavier, head of equities and partner at AW Capital, highlighted that Bradesco provides foreign investors with liquidity and scale to quickly expand Brazilian exposure.

Bradesco BBI recently projected the benchmark Selic rate at 11% by late 2027, about 2.5 percentage points below what the curve was pricing in. Marcelo Bassani, economist and founder of Boa Brasil Capital, emphasized that asset prices are reacting to revised fiscal expectations, though market volatility may persist until the October 25 runoff.